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Summary Box: Dow edges lower with Europe worries (AP)

Jan 12th, 2012
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EUROPE SLOWS: Germany reported that its economy, the largest in Europe, shrank slightly at the end of last year. The European Union revised its figures for economic growth in the third quarter to 0.1 percent, its slowest pace in more than two years.

KNOCK-ON EFFECTS: The United States depends on Europe to buy about 20 percent of its exports. Concerns about Europe’s economy have helped lead analysts to lower their profit estimates for U.S. companies.

EARNINGS RESULTS: Supervalu, a grocery store operator, plunged after reporting a wider-than-expected quarterly loss because of high food prices and costs related to a turnaround plan.

Source: http://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/rss/europe/*http%3A//news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20120111/ap_on_bi_ge/us_wall_street_summary_box

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US stocks drop; Citi and other big banks fall hard (AP)

Jan 3rd, 2012
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NEW YORK ? U.S. stocks edged lower in midday trading with bank stocks leading the way down.

Stocks opened higher Monday but quickly fell after an hour of trading. Cautious comments from the head of the European Central bank soured any hopes the ECB would find a resolution to Europe’s debt crisis anytime soon.

Citigroup Inc. and Morgan Stanley fell nearly 6 percent. JPMorgan Chase & Co. lost more than 4 percent, the biggest drop among the 30 stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial average.

“If Europe is going to be bring us down it’s going to come through the financial firms,” said J.J. Kinahan, chief derivatives strategist at TD Ameritrade.

A report in The Wall Street Journal also said U.S. regulators will likely force U.S. banks to follow stricter rules to shore up their finances. The new rules are aimed at keeping banks from failing but would pinch profits.

The Dow fell 51, or 0.4 percent to 11,814 as of 12 noon Eastern time. Pfizer Inc. was the Dow’s leading stock, rising 1.2 percent.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 index fell 7 points, or 0.6 percent, to 1,212. The Nasdaq composite index fell 10, or 0.4 percent, to 2,545.

Among companies making large moves, Winn-Dixie soared 71 percent. The supermarket chain is being sold to Bi-Lo LLC, another supermarket operator with stores in the southern U.S., in a deal valued at $560 million.

Cablevision Systems Corp. rose 1 percent after an analyst from Citibank said a recent drop in the company’s stock seemed “way overdone.” The stock has lost 27 percent from the end of October through last Friday following the unexpected resignation of its chief operating officer.

Commercial Metals Co. dropped 1 percent. The company’s board rejected a $1.7 billion takeover bid from the investor Carl Icahn, saying the proposed deal undervalued the company.

The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo builder sentiment index inched up two points to 21 in December, the highest level since May 2010. But any reading below 50 is still a negative outlook.

Source: http://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/rss/stocks/*http%3A//news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20111219/ap_on_bi_st_ma_re/wall_street

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German businesses, consumers upbeat despite crisis

Dec 31st, 2011
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BERLIN (AP) ? German business and consumer confidence ended 2011 on a high note despite ongoing fears about the European economy, two closely watched surveys showed Tuesday.

The Ifo Institute’s monthly index of business confidence increased to 107.2 points from 106.6, as participants’ assessment of their current situation remained unchanged but expectations for the next six months rose.

“Overall, latest Ifo data give ground for optimism that the German economy will weather the ongoing negative influence from eurozone debt crisis developments and the general worsening of prospects for external demand from the rest of Europe fairly well,” said Timo Klein, an economist with IHS Global Insight.

Economists had been predicting a drop to 106 amid weakness in the global economy and serious concerns about the financial future of several eurozone countries.

“The German economy seems to be successfully countering the downturn in Western Europe,” said Ifo president Hans-Werner Sinn. “This bodes well for Christmas.”

Consumer confidence also proved resilient, according to the GfK research institute’s forward-looking indicator for January. It remained unchanged from December’s 5.6 points as people were optimistic “despite rising economic risks and further escalation of the debt crisis.”

There were mixed messages from the survey, however, as German income and economic expectations both rose but consumers’ willingness to buy dropped significantly, GfK said.

“Willingness to buy did not benefit from the improvement in economic and income expectations…” Gfk said, noting that it still remained at a “comparatively high level.”

GfK said its survey of 2,000 consumers was almost complete before the most recent EU summit in Brussels and that it is unclear whether the inclination to hold back on purchases may now be resolved with the broad agreement reached there.

But it also said that while economic expectations are “defying the rising fears of recession,” that might change as the debt crisis hurts German exports.

“With most German companies operating at above average capacity, the labor market is very robust and unemployment figures continue to fall,” GfK said. “Whether this trend can be sustained remains to be seen ? the European debt crisis is increasingly likely to become a problem for Germany’s export economy.”

Dutch consumer confidence, by contrast, fell sharply in December to below the deepest lows of 2008 and 2009, according to a new report Tuesday.

The differing outlook is unusual, given the two economies’ close trade links and common view on economic policy, as the Dutch government has consistently backed German policies throughout the crisis.

The country’s Central Bureau for Statistics pointed to worries over the Dutch housing market, wage stagnation, and forecasts for a mild recession in the Netherlands in 2012 as key differences.

Ifo, which surveyed approximately 7,000 German businesses, said that their assessment of their current situation remained unchanged for the third month in a row, while expectations for the next six months ticked up for the third month in a row.

Earlier this month, Ifo lowered its forecast for German growth for 2012 to 0.4 percent because of the financial turmoil and a cooling global economy.

The government’s independent economic advisers last month predicted that output would expand by 0.9 percent in 2012. Both forecast growth of 3 percent this year.

Another German think tank, the IfW institute, on Tuesday lowered its 2012 growth projection from 0.8 percent to 0.5 percent, while Essen’s RWI institute lowered its forecast from 1 percent to 0.6 percent.

Carsten Brzeski, an economist with ING Global Research said that while it is clear that the German economy is cooling, the Ifo results indicate it is “heading towards a soft patch but not falling off the cliff.”

“The length of the soft patch will to a large extent be determined by the management of the debt crisis,” he said. “The German economy should remain the stronghold of the Eurozone. It is faltering, but not falling.”

_____

Toby Sterling in Amsterdam contributed to this report.

Associated Press

Source: http://hosted2.ap.org/apdefault/f70471f764144b2fab526d39972d37b3/Article_2011-12-20-EU-Germany-Economy/id-d1dcbd74f2924a74ba1e32462c0e875e

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Stocks soar on Europe hopes, strong housing starts

Dec 30th, 2011
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Traders James Lodewick, left, and James Riley, center, on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange Tuesday, Dec. 20, 2011. Stocks are surging after the opening bell following encouraging signs out of Europe and a jump in apartment building in the U.S. (AP Photo/Richard Drew)

Traders James Lodewick, left, and James Riley, center, on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange Tuesday, Dec. 20, 2011. Stocks are surging after the opening bell following encouraging signs out of Europe and a jump in apartment building in the U.S. (AP Photo/Richard Drew)

Traders Gerard Farco, left, and Richard Cohen, right. work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange Tuesday, Dec. 20, 2011. Stocks are surging after the opening bell following encouraging signs out of Europe and a jump in apartment building in the U.S. (AP Photo/Richard Drew)

Trader Gregory Rowe works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange Tuesday, Dec. 20, 2011. Stocks are surging after the opening bell following encouraging signs out of Europe and a jump in apartment building in the U.S. (AP Photo/Richard Drew)

Traders John Panin, center, and Robert Charmay, right, work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange Tuesday, Dec. 20, 2011. Stocks are surging after the opening bell following encouraging signs out of Europe and a jump in apartment building in the U.S. (AP Photo/Richard Drew)

NEW YORK (AP) ? Stocks are surging following encouraging signs out of Europe and a jump in apartment building in the U.S. The Dow Jones industrial average jumped more than 300 points. If the gains hold, it will be the best day for stocks this month.

German business and consumer confidence rose unexpectedly in December, and the Spanish government pulled off a successful debt auction. Both helped to ease worries about Europe’s debt crisis.

Borrowing costs for the Spanish government plunged at an auction of short-term debt, a sign that investors are becoming more confident in the country’s ability to pay it back.

“Spain has plenty of problems, large debts and budget deficits,” said Sam Stovall, chief equity strategist at S&P Capital IQ. “So when we see debt auctions go much better than expected it’s very encouraging.”

Spain raised euro5.6 billion ($7.3 billion), much more than its goal of euro4.5 billion. Investors demanded an interest rate of only 1.74 percent to lend to the government for three months, a steep fall from the 5.1 percent at an auction in November.

The Dow Jones industrial average jumped 315 points, or 2.8 percent, to 12,082 as of 2:30 p.m. Eastern time. It fell 100 points the day before. Cisco Systems Inc. rose 4.4 percent, the largest gain of the 30 Dow stocks.

The gains held on Tuesday afternoon even after the U.S. House of Representatives rejected a plan to extend a cut to the amount withdrawn from employee’s paychecks for Social Security. Unemployment benefits for 2 million people are also at risk.

A Federal Reserve proposal for stricter rules on larger banks didn’t knock down JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup and other big bank stocks. JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Citigroup remained up by 3.9 percent Tuesday afternoon.

Analysts cautioned that other big rallies in the stock market have been quick to fade as traders move quickly to get out of stocks and keep more money in cash. “If you’re selling into rallies, it means people want out. They don’t believe it’s sustainable,” said Quincy Krosby, Prudential Financial’s market strategist.

Take the Dow’s 490-point jump Nov. 30 after major central banks made a coordinated move to prop up European lenders by freeing up cash. The one-day rally brought the Dow to 12,045, but that gain had evaporated by last week.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 index gained 33 points, or 2.7 percent, to 1,238. Only 10 stocks in the index fell.

The Nasdaq composite index rose 74, or 2.9 percent, to 2,597.

Europe’s major stock markets also climbed. Germany’s DAX soared 3.1 percent. France’s CAC-40 jumped 2.7 percent.

The Commerce Department said builders broke ground on 685,000 new homes last month, a 9.3 percent jump from October. That’s the highest level since April 2010. Building permits, a gauge of future construction, increased 5.7 percent, spurred by a jump in apartment permits.

The report sent housing stocks sharply higher. PulteGroup Inc. jumped 9 percent. D.R. Horton Inc. Lennar Corp. each rose 5 percent.

Stovall said the surge in housing construction was another piece of evidence that the U.S. will avoid slipping into another recession soon. “It’s great news,” he said.

In corporate news,

? General Mills Inc. dropped 1 percent after reporting that its quarterly profit sank 28 percent. The maker of Cheerios and Yoplait yogurt blamed higher costs for ingredients and packaging for pinching profit margins.

? AT&T Inc. rose 1 percent after the company abandoned its bid late Monday to acquire the wireless provider T-Mobile USA. Sprint Nextel Corp. gained 5 percent. Sprint, the No. 3 wireless carrier, had opposed the deal.

? Red Hat Inc. plunged 8 percent after the software company forecast revenue that was short of what analysts were expecting. Red Hat provides support to business users for the freely distributed Linux operating system.

Associated Press

Source: http://hosted2.ap.org/APDEFAULT/3d281c11a96b4ad082fe88aa0db04305/Article_2011-12-20-Wall-Street/id-9f7439db54394654bef47f744b4fec25

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What if Ron Paul wins Iowa?

Dec 23rd, 2011
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Two new polls show that Ron Paul is the leading Republican candidate in Iowa. If Ron Paul wins Iowa and finishes strong in New Hampshire, he could change the election’s calculus.?

According to the latest Iowa survey of the Republican presidential field, Rep. Ron Paul of Texas is now on top, with 23 percent of likely caucusgoers supporting him. The Public Policy Polling survey puts?former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney second (20 percent) and a rapidly falling Newt Gingrich third (14 percent).

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A second poll released Monday also has Congressman Paul leading Mr. Romney, 24 to 18 percent. In that poll, by Insider Advantage, Texas Gov.?Rick Perry actually comes out 1.5 points ahead of Mr. Gingrich.

And New York Times polling analyst Nate Silver, who has developed his own forecasting model, is predicting a Paul victory in Iowa. That model ? which takes various polls into consideration, and weighs them according to accuracy and other factors ? now gives Paul a 52 percent chance of an Iowa victory. It assigns Romney a 28 percent chance of winning, and Gingrich an 8 percent chance.

The Iowa caucuses are just over two weeks away, and a lot can change in that time ? even in a primary field less volatile than this one has been.

But what if Paul actually wins Iowa?

Few experts believe he has much, if any, chance to win the ultimate nomination. His views ? which include abolishing the Federal Reserve, drastically cutting military spending, and dropping any federal role in regulating marriage ? are too far outside the Republican mainstream, they say. And despite being called the “godfather” of the tea party movement, an unscientific tea party straw poll taken by phone Sunday night gave Paul just 3 percent of the 23,000 votes cast.

That doesn’t mean, however, that he won’t be a factor.

An Iowa win would likely carry over to a reasonably good showing in New Hampshire, which has a strong libertarian streak and where Paul is already ahead of Gingrich in the most recent PPP poll.

A Paul win in Iowa ? combined with a thumping of Gingrich in New Hampshire ? is mostly good for Romney.

The more votes Paul siphons away from Gingrich, the less the GOP right has a viable alternative to Romney. It’s hard to see how Gingrich comes off of a poor showing in both Iowa and New Hampshire poised to do well, even though he seems ? for the moment ? better positioned in the next two contests, South Carolina and Florida.

“In addition to [Romney's] chances of winning Iowa outright, a close second-place finish behind Mr. Paul would be a reasonably favorable outcome for him,” writes Mr. Silver in his blog.

Silver adds, though, that a Paul victory in New Hampshire ? where Romney is currently favored ? could change things somewhat: “Although Mr. Romney might prefer that Mr. Paul win Iowa rather than a candidate like Mr. Gingrich or Mr. Perry who had a potentially broader base of support, all bets would be off if Mr. Paul won New Hampshire too.”

It’s also good news for Paul, even if it doesn’t propel him to the nomination.

Paul’s candidacy has always been about changing the conversation and promoting new viewpoints, and a victory in Iowa would give him a far greater platform to promote his ideas.

It’s easy to envision a Republican Convention, for instance, in which Paul plays a fairly large role. And a Republican Party that is forced to take Paul seriously rather regard him as a slightly batty uncle.

After months of shifting predictions of who will win Iowa ? Paul is the sixth GOP candidate to come out on top of the polls there ? could Paul finally be the one who peaks at the right time?

Source: http://rss.csmonitor.com/~r/feeds/csm/~3/5chaXdpc25Q/What-if-Ron-Paul-wins-Iowa

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Scheduled home auctions hit 9-month high in Nov. (AP)

Dec 15th, 2011
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LOS ANGELES ? Fewer U.S. homes entered the foreclosure process or were taken back by banks in November, reflecting a seasonal pullback in foreclosure activity by lenders and mortgage servicers.

But for some homeowners already behind on their mortgage payments, the end-of-year slowdown isn’t likely to provide much of a reprieve.

The number of homes in foreclosure and scheduled to be auctioned hit a nine-month high last month, foreclosure listing firm RealtyTrac Inc. said Thursday.

The surge came about because of a spike three months earlier in homes entering the foreclosure process for the first time. And unless those borrowers find a way to get current on their mortgage payments, many of those homes will likely be sold at auction or end up being taken back by the lender.

“Despite a seasonal slowdown similar to what we’ve seen each of the past four years, November’s numbers suggest a new set of incoming foreclosure waves,” said RealtyTrac CEO James Saccacio.

All told, foreclosure auctions were scheduled on 96,540 U.S. homes last month, RealtyTrac said. That’s up 13 percent from October, but still down 17 percent from November last year.

Some states posted far higher monthly increases in scheduled home auctions last month. In California, they were up 63 percent, while in Washington they climbed 56 percent.

Those homes could end up back on the market as foreclosures or short sales, when a homeowner sells their property for less than what they owe on their mortgage. And that means more pressure on home values, because foreclosures and short sales typically sell for a lot less than other homes.

U.S. foreclosure activity slowed sharply starting in October of last year, after problems surfaced with the way many lenders were handling foreclosures. Specifically, signing off on home foreclosures without first verifying documents ? a practice referred to as “robo-signing.”

Many of the nation’s largest banks reacted by temporarily ceasing all foreclosures, re-filing previously filed foreclosure cases and revisiting pending cases to prevent errors.

The pace of foreclosure activity continued to slow much of this year as major lenders worked toward a possible settlement of government probes into the industry’s mortgage-lending practices.

Those settlement talks, led by a group of state attorneys general, have suffered some setbacks in recent months after officials in California and Massachusetts broke with the rest of the states. There also has been disagreement among the states’ prosecutors over what terms to offer the banks.

Still, there have been signals that foreclosure activity will be increasing in coming months.

Banks stepped up action in August against homeowners whose mortgage had gone unpaid. The number of homes receiving an initial notice of default that month jumped 33 percent from July. Default notices also rose between September and October.

That helped set the stage for the sharp increase in scheduled foreclosure auctions last month and will likely contribute to an anticipated bump in home repossessions early next year, Saccacio said.

Home repossessions hit their lowest level since March 2008 last month, according to RealtyTrac. In all, banks took back 56,124 homes last month, down 17 percent from October and from November a year ago.

Banks are now on track to repossess some 810,000 homes this year, down from more than 1 million last year, according to RealtyTrac. The firm had originally anticipated some 1.2 million homes would be repossessed by lenders this year.

High unemployment, a sluggish housing market and falling home values remain a major factor in homeowners falling behind on their mortgage payments. Many borrowers also have simply stopped paying their mortgage because they are underwater ? a term for owing more on a mortgage than the home is worth.

At the end of September, 10.7 million, or 22.1 percent of all U.S. homes with a mortgage, were underwater, according to CoreLogic. And an additional 2.4 million borrowers had less than 5 percent equity in their homes, the firm said.

In all, 224,394 U.S. properties received a foreclosure-related notice last month, down 3 percent from October and down 14 percent from November last year, RealtyTrac said. That amounts to one in every 579 households.

Initial default notices declined 8 percent from October and were down 9 percent from November last year.

At the state level, Nevada had the nation’s highest foreclosure rate last month with one in every 175 households receiving a foreclosure notice ? more than three times the national average.

California, which alone accounted for 28 percent of all U.S. homes receiving a foreclosure notice last month, had the second-highest foreclosure rate. Arizona was third.

Rounding out the top 10 states with the highest foreclosure rate in November are Utah, Georgia, Michigan, Florida, Illinois, Ohio and South Carolina.

Source: http://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/rss/business/*http%3A//news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20111215/ap_on_bi_ge/us_foreclosure_rates

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