Is that it for “The Hunger Games” and Gary Ross? That’s a possibility we’re looking at based on a new report that the filmmaker and Lionsgate are in “tough negotiations” regarding how much he’ll earn for the planned sequel, “Catching Fire.” On paper, the idea of another director getting to put his or her stamp [...]
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CHARLESTON, S.C. ? Standing in near unison, the four remaining contenders seeking the Republican presidential nomination are condemning a proposed anti-online piracy law that its critics say is overly aggressive.
Mitt Romney says the law is “far too intrusive” and too broad. He says if the Stop Online Piracy Act becomes law, it could stop job creation and hurt the economy.
Newt Gingrich says the law pre-emptively censors the Internet on behalf of corporations. He says there are patents and copyrights to protect creators’ rights and that, if someone is stealing, then the owners should sue under existing laws.
Rick Santorum says he doesn’t like the law but adds that the Internet is not somewhere “where anyone can do anything they want.” And Ron Paul says the bill threatens freedom.
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Two new polls show that Ron Paul is the leading Republican candidate in Iowa. If Ron Paul wins Iowa and finishes strong in New Hampshire, he could change the election’s calculus.?
According to the latest Iowa survey of the Republican presidential field, Rep. Ron Paul of Texas is now on top, with 23 percent of likely caucusgoers supporting him. The Public Policy Polling survey puts?former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney second (20 percent) and a rapidly falling Newt Gingrich third (14 percent).
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A second poll released Monday also has Congressman Paul leading Mr. Romney, 24 to 18 percent. In that poll, by Insider Advantage, Texas Gov.?Rick Perry actually comes out 1.5 points ahead of Mr. Gingrich.
And New York Times polling analyst Nate Silver, who has developed his own forecasting model, is predicting a Paul victory in Iowa. That model ? which takes various polls into consideration, and weighs them according to accuracy and other factors ? now gives Paul a 52 percent chance of an Iowa victory. It assigns Romney a 28 percent chance of winning, and Gingrich an 8 percent chance.
The Iowa caucuses are just over two weeks away, and a lot can change in that time ? even in a primary field less volatile than this one has been.
But what if Paul actually wins Iowa?
Few experts believe he has much, if any, chance to win the ultimate nomination. His views ? which include abolishing the Federal Reserve, drastically cutting military spending, and dropping any federal role in regulating marriage ? are too far outside the Republican mainstream, they say. And despite being called the “godfather” of the tea party movement, an unscientific tea party straw poll taken by phone Sunday night gave Paul just 3 percent of the 23,000 votes cast.
That doesn’t mean, however, that he won’t be a factor.
An Iowa win would likely carry over to a reasonably good showing in New Hampshire, which has a strong libertarian streak and where Paul is already ahead of Gingrich in the most recent PPP poll.
A Paul win in Iowa ? combined with a thumping of Gingrich in New Hampshire ? is mostly good for Romney.
The more votes Paul siphons away from Gingrich, the less the GOP right has a viable alternative to Romney. It’s hard to see how Gingrich comes off of a poor showing in both Iowa and New Hampshire poised to do well, even though he seems ? for the moment ? better positioned in the next two contests, South Carolina and Florida.
“In addition to [Romney's] chances of winning Iowa outright, a close second-place finish behind Mr. Paul would be a reasonably favorable outcome for him,” writes Mr. Silver in his blog.
Silver adds, though, that a Paul victory in New Hampshire ? where Romney is currently favored ? could change things somewhat: “Although Mr. Romney might prefer that Mr. Paul win Iowa rather than a candidate like Mr. Gingrich or Mr. Perry who had a potentially broader base of support, all bets would be off if Mr. Paul won New Hampshire too.”
It’s also good news for Paul, even if it doesn’t propel him to the nomination.
Paul’s candidacy has always been about changing the conversation and promoting new viewpoints, and a victory in Iowa would give him a far greater platform to promote his ideas.
It’s easy to envision a Republican Convention, for instance, in which Paul plays a fairly large role. And a Republican Party that is forced to take Paul seriously rather regard him as a slightly batty uncle.
After months of shifting predictions of who will win Iowa ? Paul is the sixth GOP candidate to come out on top of the polls there ? could Paul finally be the one who peaks at the right time?
Source: http://rss.csmonitor.com/~r/feeds/csm/~3/5chaXdpc25Q/What-if-Ron-Paul-wins-Iowa
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Republican presidential hopeful, Texas Gov. Rick Perry, speaks to local residents during a campaign stop at the Pizza Ranch restaurant, Monday, Dec. 19, 2011, in Manchester, Iowa. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)
Republican presidential hopeful, Texas Gov. Rick Perry, speaks to local residents during a campaign stop at the Pizza Ranch restaurant, Monday, Dec. 19, 2011, in Manchester, Iowa. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)
Republican presidential candidate Texas Gov. Rick Perry speaks during a campaign stop at the Chickasaw Event Center in New Hampton, Iowa, Sunday, Dec. 18, 2011. (AP Photo/Chris Carlson)
Republican presidential hopeful, Texas Gov. Rick Perry, center, reacts as he is introduced to speak to local residents during a campaign stop at the Pizza Ranch restaurant, Monday, Dec. 19, 2011, in Manchester, Iowa. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)
MANCHESTER, Iowa (AP) ? Seeking a late surge, Texas Gov. Rick Perry sought Monday to tar GOP presidential rivals Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney for supporting the $700 billion Wall Street bailout and said the billions loaned to banks and other financial institutions at the height of the 2008 financial crisis amounted to “the single biggest act of theft in American history.”
Most of the money has been paid back.
In the final weeks before the Iowa caucuses on Jan. 3, Perry stressed his credentials as a Washington outsider ? someone who he says understands Main Street and is not beholden to the wealthy Wall Street set.
Perry said the values he learned growing up in rural Texas shaped his views.
“No one was going to bail out a dry-land cotton farmer” and no one should have bailed out Wall Street, Perry said in northeastern Iowa.
“This Wall Street bailout is the single biggest act of theft in American history,” he told voters at a pizza buffet. “And, you know, Newt and Mitt, they both were for it. That’s one of the reasons I say that if you really want an individual who is an outsider, someone who has not been engaged in part of that process, I hope you’ll take a look at me.”
He later said younger voters would pay the most.
“It’s because in a great deal of decision making, there was no thought about you,” Perry said in Dyersville. “It was about people who were going to get rich either way.”
Romney and Gingrich supported the Wall Street rescue that was shepherded into law in fall 2008 by Republican President George W. Bush. They have since become critics of the program, which conservative voters tend to loathe.
Perry joined the presidential contest in August to great fanfare but lost his luster following what was widely viewed as erratic behavior and lackluster performances in debates. He is hoping to achieve a comeback by pitching himself as “an outsider who truly believes that we’ve got more taxes and more regulation and more government than most Americans want.”
“We need to make the decision that we’re not going to support bailouts and these wasteful earmarks,” he said.
Romney, a former Massachusetts governor, has remained steady in polling and also has a sizable campaign fund. Gingrich, the former House speaker, has surged in recent weeks as voters started watching the race more closely.
Perry is hoping to leapfrog them both by casting former business executive Romney as a Wall Street insider ? although his venture capital firm was based in Massachusetts, not New York ? and Gingrich as a Washington elite.
“If you’ll have my back on Jan. 3 at the caucuses here in Iowa,” he told voters. “I’ll have your back for the next four years in Washington, D.C.”
Associated Press
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>>> the iowa caucuses are now just 22 days away and newt gingrich seemed to pass his first crucial test as gop frontrunner this weekend, surviving his first debate as frontrunner without taking nearly as much damaging incoming fire as expected.
>>> meanwhile the former frontrunner, mitt romney , is adjusting to his new role as chief challenger. we get more from nbc’s chuck todd . [ applause ]
>> reporter: campaigning in new hampshire, mitt romney took direct aim at newt gingrich , attacking his ties to freddie mac .
>> i think a fair question is asked, why did he profit as freddie mac failed.
>> reporter: gingrich , whose consulting firm made over a million in freddie mac fees, quickly hit back.
>> if governor romney would like to give back the money he e’s earned from bankrupting companies and laying off employees over the years i would be glad to listen to him. and i’ll bet you ten dollars, not 10,000.
>> reporter: that challenge a direct reference to saturday’s debate when rick perry accused romney of taking a report for a health care mandate out of his books. book.
>> i’ll tell you what. 10,000 bucks. $10,000 bet?
>> i’m not in the betting business.
>> oh, okay.
>> reporter: the moment went viral and the perry campaign tried to capitalize. romney tried to defuse the idea he’s out of touch.
>> after the debate was over, ann came up and gave me a kiss, said i was great and said a lot of things you do well, betting isn’t one of them.
>> reporter: today romney was concentrating his fire on gingrich , even hitting him for his tone.
>> i know among some folks saying outrageous or incendiary thing wills get you a lot of kudos and drive your numbers up, but it’s not going to win us the white house .
>> reporter: the issue of gingrich ‘s temperament is being debated inside the white house . senator lindsey graham came to gingrich ‘s defense.
>> even his worst critics would say newt is a guy that can hold a room, a very smart fellow.
>>> romney is not only having a tough time in the polls but also on the trail. today he found himself on the defensive with a vietnam veteran on the issue of gay marriage .
>> you do not believe that everyone is entitled to a constitutional right?
>> i think of the time the constitution was written it was pretty clear that marriage is between a man and a woman. i don’t believe the supreme court is changing that.
>> we have to get on.
>> oh, i guess the question was too hot.
>> reporter: there was a silver lining . while mitt romney was behind double digits the leading second choice candidate of gingrich supporters is mitt romney . brian, it means this time if somehow mitt romney can vanquish this not mitt romney challenger, newt gingrich , the nomination would be his. but he has a long way to go.
>> well, chuck, not only did the romney campaign expect to be out front by now, but the democrats’ opposition research is predicated upon him being the leader and not gingrich . do you think the romney folks in their heart of hearts expect to pull this out?
>> reporter: they do. they have a huge organizational advantage. they have really, brian, kept their money well accounted for. they haven’t overspent the way, for instance, hillary clinton did at this point in time four years ago. they have a lot in the bank for a state like florida.
>> chuck todd in our d.c. newsroom tonight with a report from the trail. chuck, thanks.
Source: http://video.msnbc.msn.com/nightly-news/45647192/
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